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BackgroundAurora Alternatives — CP-140 Replacement Overview

Update: On 18 December 2007, the MND performed a volte face, announcing that  10 Aurora will be re-lifed and complete AIMP  Block III.

The CF's 18  CP-140 Aurora maritime patrol aircraft  were first delivered in 1980/'81. The Aurora Incremental Modernization Project (AIMP), which began in 1998, was to transform  these aging aircraft into "multi-mission platforms" capable of  over- land surveillance as well. Three-quarters of  the way  into this $1.6B project, structural problems were uncovered. [1]  Rather than continue the AIMP, DND halted the project in Sept 2007 and MND Peter MacKay announced on 20 Sept 2007 that the fleet of almost 30-year-old Auroras would be phased out and replaced.[2]

Playing a Limited Field:  New or Old, Jet or Turboprop?
The difficulty in replacing the Aurora is a relative dearth of suitable candidates and  the timing of projects that do exist. [3]  Direct replacements are limited to rebuilt P-3Cs, the airframe that the Aurora was originally based on, the possible new-production, updated, jet-propelled Nimrod, and  a selection of  unproven adaptations of  jet airliners.

The two jetliner candidates will be familiar even though neither have yet flown. The P-8A is adapted  from  Boeing's 737, while EADS' MPAs are derived  from the Airbus A319 / A320 family. A third aircraft, Kawasaki's P-X prototype, has flown (and it is really a maritime patrol design with aspirations of becoming an airliner later). The latter might seem an obvious CP-140 replace- ment choice, but  Japan currently won't export  military aircraft.

The Aurora is a 'Canadianized' P-3 Orion which, in turn, was based on a 1950s airliner. The trouble with replacing the Aurora can be traced to the failure of  the US Navy's program to replace the Orion.  Lockheed was to build an updated Orion, the P-7A (left).  Cost overruns killed that project but the ghost of the P-7A appears in a number of updated P-3 Orion proposals.  Most of  these proposals rely upon surplus P-3 airframes with low flying hours (an increasingly rare commodity). In a CF context, this would involve transfering Aurora sensors and systems (to AIMP Block III) to remanufactured P-3s.

"Playing spot the submarine" or Playing Fast and Loose (but Not Low & Slow)
The final candidate is not a direct replacement for the Aurora but it is reportedly the favoured option. This would be a new patrol variant of Bombardier's Global Express bizjet. This aircraft is already in service in Britain as the Sentinel R1 – a battlefield reconnaissance platform. For Canadian Forces use, the major Aurora systems would  be installed.  The Global Express is a much smaller aircraft than an Aurora and the Bombardier has little space for a weapons bay. If the CF were to adopt Global Express, it would be safe to assume that traditional ASW (anti- submarine warfare) techniques practised by the CP-140 squadrons would be abandoned in favour of  surveillance.

[1] This fell under the related Aurora Structural Life Extension Project (ASLEP).  No surprise to find structural problems in aircraft this old.
[2] Within two months, the MND's decision to abandon AIMP and ASLEP were reversed. Ten CP-140s are to be updated to AIMP Phase III standards by IMP of  Halifax. Ten sets of ASLEP components will be ordered from  Lockheed Martin Corporation of  Marietta, Georgia.
[3] The US Navy is committed to the jetliner-based Boeing P-8A Poseidon for its Multi-mission Maritime Aircraft but this P-3 replacement is not expected to achieve initial operational capability until 2013.  Most P-8A systems are based on the latest P-3C upgrades. That makes sense for the USN but DND would have to decided on either abandoning all AIMP work or trying to integrate those sensors into a 'CP-8'.